泡泡玛特遭空头围猎,近4个月跌40%,市值蒸发超1800亿港元
21世纪经济报道·2025-12-08 09:50

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant decline in Pop Mart's stock price, with a nearly 8.5% drop on December 8, marking the largest decline in over six weeks, and a cumulative drop of over 14% in the past month, resulting in a market value loss of over 180 billion HKD compared to its August peak [1]. Market Sentiment - The short-selling sentiment towards Pop Mart has intensified, with a short-selling amount of 1.092 billion HKD on December 8, an increase of 210.58% from the previous trading day and 47.35% higher than the average of the last 30 trading days [3]. - The short-selling ratio reached 19.23%, deviating by -17.33% from the average short-selling ratio of the last 30 trading days [3]. - The number of shares sold short increased from 1.1106 million to 1.6170 million since December 2, with the short-selling amount rising from 241 million HKD to 623 million HKD during the same period [3]. Trading Data - On December 8, the short-selling amount was 1.092 billion HKD, with a short-selling ratio of 19.23%, and the stock closed at 200.40 HKD, reflecting a decline of 8.49% [4]. - The trading data for the previous days shows fluctuations in short-selling amounts and ratios, with notable increases in short-selling activity leading up to December 8 [4]. Financial Performance - Pop Mart's overall revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to surge by 245%-250% year-on-year, driven by the launch of new products like Mini Labubu and SP Insomnia Theater, along with revenue recognition from pre-sales in Q2 [5]. - The core IP Labubu continues to be a key growth driver, although there are concerns about declining market interest following the launch of new products, with secondary market premiums dropping significantly [5]. - Deutsche Bank's recent report warns that the large-scale production increase from 10 million units in the first half of the year to an average of 50 million units per month by year-end may signal a decline in brand heat, which is critical for a brand reliant on unique design and scarcity [5].