被楼市反噬，房价破万！这个省会，没有退路了！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic challenges faced by Kunming, highlighting its failure to meet ambitious growth targets set for 2025, including a GDP of over 1 trillion yuan and a resident population of around 10 million. The city has been experiencing economic stagnation for five years, primarily due to over-reliance on the real estate sector and insufficient industrial development [4][6][27]. Economic Performance - Kunming's GDP for 2024 is reported at 827.52 billion yuan, falling short of the 1 trillion yuan target by over 170 billion yuan. The resident population stands at 8.687 million, lacking the goal of 10 million by 2025 [6][4]. - The city's economic growth has been declining, with a GDP growth rate of only 4.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, ranking it 7th lowest among 36 major cities and trailing the national average by 0.8 percentage points [16][19]. - The overall economic slowdown in Kunming is reflected in the province's performance, with Yunnan's GDP growth at 4.3%, also below the national average [20]. Real Estate Sector Impact - The article emphasizes that Kunming's economic issues are largely due to the negative repercussions of its real estate sector, which has seen a drastic decline in land sales and housing market activity. Land sale revenues peaked at 91.57 billion yuan in 2019 but plummeted to 4.628 billion yuan in 2023, a drop of 86.5% from the peak [34][36]. - Housing sales have also drastically decreased, with 2024 sales volume at 6.3942 million square meters, down 66.6% from the 2019 peak of 19.1623 million square meters [39]. Industrial Development Challenges - Kunming's industrial output has been growing slowly, with the total industrial value added increasing from 131.92 billion yuan in 2019 to 183.76 billion yuan in 2024, which is significantly lower than industrial powerhouses like Shenzhen [50][56]. - The city has only one industry with over 100 billion yuan in revenue, which is far less compared to other cities that have multiple billion-yuan industries [60]. - The article points out that Kunming's geographical limitations hinder industrial development, as the city is primarily located on a plateau with limited flat land suitable for industrial activities [90][92]. Future Outlook and Goals - The city has set ambitious goals in its "Three-Year Action Plan" to enhance its industrial base, aiming for industrial investment to grow by over 26% annually and to increase the share of industrial output in GDP to over 30% by 2025 [85][86]. - However, the reality shows a decline in industrial investment, with a reported decrease of 2.5% in 2023 and a mere 1.9% growth in 2024 [86].