解读中央政治局会议：如何理解“扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量”？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to address the persistent issue of insufficient effective demand in China's economy by expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and stimulating effective investment demand, while also optimizing and expanding effective supply through innovation to achieve structural balance in supply and demand [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Growth Targets - The Central Political Bureau meeting on December 8 discussed the economic work for 2026, proposing a more proactive macro policy to enhance the forward-looking, targeted, and coordinated nature of policies, aiming to maintain social stability and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][3]. - Analysts predict that the GDP growth target for 2026 will be set between 4.5% and 5.0%, a slight decrease from the 2025 target of around 5.0%, reflecting a focus on high-quality development and maintaining necessary policy space [3][4]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of achieving qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, with a focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [3][4]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Investment - The article suggests that the fiscal deficit rate for 2026 should be raised to 4.5% to 5%, with a broad deficit scale exceeding 16 trillion yuan, to support an estimated 7.4 trillion yuan in incremental fiscal funding needed for a 5% growth target [7]. - It is proposed that special bonds remain at 1.8 trillion yuan, with local special bond quotas slightly increasing to 5.1 trillion yuan to support infrastructure projects and debt clearance [7][8]. - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to reflect a "one flat three rises" approach, maintaining the fiscal deficit rate while increasing the scale of special bonds and quasi-fiscal policy tools [8]. Group 3: Economic Environment and Structural Adjustments - The article notes that China has transitioned from an incremental growth phase to one focused on existing stock, necessitating structural adjustments and the enhancement of technological innovation to achieve high-quality growth [3][4]. - The need for significant project investments in the early part of 2026 is emphasized, particularly in light of internal pressures such as aging and external challenges like geopolitical tensions and industrial chain restructuring [6].