蒙牛(2319.HK)用五年沉淀，拼出下一个五年的领跑权

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by large enterprises, particularly in the Chinese dairy industry, emphasizing the need for strategic mergers and acquisitions to overcome growth bottlenecks and navigate industry cycles [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The Chinese dairy industry has experienced significant challenges over the past five years, including fluctuating raw milk prices, structural changes in consumer markets, and intensified competition, shifting from "land grab" to "stock game" [3][4]. - The macroeconomic environment has led to a decline in liquid milk sales, with a 7.5% year-on-year drop from January to May 2025, worsening to a 9.6% decline in June [11]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Actions - Mengniu has actively pursued a series of strategic mergers and acquisitions over the past five years, including increasing its stake in Modern Dairy and acquiring China Shengmu to strengthen its upstream supply chain [4][5]. - Mengniu's acquisition of the Australian brand Bellamy's in 2019 faced challenges, with a significant impairment of goodwill estimated at 3.8 to 4 billion yuan, but the brand has shown recovery potential with over 20% revenue growth in the first half of the year [8][9]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Resilience - Despite the pressures from the raw milk price decline, Mengniu has demonstrated resilience, with Modern Dairy's capital expenditure decreasing by 16.9% year-on-year and operating cash flow increasing by 23.3% in the first half of the year [5]. - Mengniu's financial health is improving, with operating profit reaching 3.54 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 13.4% increase year-on-year, and a 46.2% growth in operating cash flow [12][13]. Group 4: Future Growth Strategies - Mengniu aims to deepen its "One Body, Two Wings" strategy, focusing on consolidating its core business while expanding through innovation and global outreach [18][22]. - The company is developing a nutrition and health platform, with brands like MaiSheng targeting the global sports nutrition market, projected to grow significantly in the coming years [23][24]. - Mengniu's international expansion includes strengthening its presence in Southeast Asia and leveraging Bellamy's success in high-end maternal and infant markets [30].