年内最后一个超级央行周，美联储或降息、重启购债双管齐下

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates and restart its bond-buying program in December, with an 88% probability of a rate cut according to Fed Watch data [2][3] - Recent economic data from the U.S. has been mixed, with the upcoming JOLTS report being a key focus for investors ahead of the Fed meeting [2] - The Fed's balance sheet peaked at nearly $9 trillion in 2022 but has since shrunk by approximately $2.4 trillion due to quantitative tightening, leading to liquidity concerns in the repo market [4] Group 2 - Other central banks, including those in Australia, Canada, and Switzerland, are also expected to announce interest rate decisions this week, with Canada likely to maintain its rate at 2.25% [5][6] - The Australian central bank is anticipated to keep rates steady at 3.6% but may signal a shift towards a more hawkish stance in future meetings [5][6] - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain its zero interest rate policy, acknowledging weaker inflation prospects due to a stronger franc [6] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, is set to speak this week, with market expectations for a potential rate hike in December at around 90% [7][8] - Recent GDP data from Japan showed a larger-than-expected contraction of 2.3% for Q3, complicating the central bank's policy decisions [7] - The rise in Japanese bond yields following Ueda's hints at a rate hike has implications for global markets, potentially affecting U.S. Treasury yields and stock indices [8]