Palantir Technologies(US:PLTR) 阿尔法工场研究院·2025-12-09 00:06Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry warns that the current AI hype, particularly surrounding OpenAI and Palantir, resembles historical market bubbles, specifically the Netscape and Diamond Cluster scenarios, indicating a potential market correction ahead [1][3][14]. Group 1: OpenAI Analysis - Burry compares OpenAI to Netscape, suggesting that even with a valuation of $1 trillion, it lacks a sustainable competitive advantage as LLMs become commoditized [1]. - He predicts that OpenAI is "hemorrhaging cash" and will likely be replaced by competitors, with Microsoft allegedly exploiting OpenAI's intellectual property while managing its debts off-balance sheet [2]. - The industry requires a significant IPO, estimated at $500 billion, to sustain the current speculative environment [2]. Group 2: Palantir Insights - Burry characterizes Palantir as a modern-day Diamond Cluster, implying that its high valuation is based on the illusion of being a tech company rather than its actual service offerings [3]. Group 3: Substack Critique - Burry critiques Substack, stating that 90% of its subscribers are free, leading to an overestimation of its revenue potential by more than tenfold [4]. Group 4: Historical Context and Predictions - Burry reflects on his past predictions regarding inflation and meme stocks, asserting that his warnings were accurate and should be taken seriously in the context of current AI investments [7][9]. - He defends his short positions against Tesla, Bitcoin, and Nasdaq, arguing that critics misjudge the timing of short trades and that market downturns validate his strategies [10]. Group 5: Investment Implications - Burry emphasizes that the current enthusiasm for AI mirrors past market behaviors, warning that the trend of buying the dip (BTFD) may signal a dangerous market sentiment [13].