券商中国·2025-12-09 01:00Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential antitrust issues surrounding Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros, especially in light of President Trump's warning, which may intensify regulatory scrutiny on the merger [1][12]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Netflix has reached an agreement to acquire Warner Bros for approximately $82.7 billion, which includes its film and television studios, HBO Max, and HBO operations [8]. - The deal values Warner Bros at $27.75 per share, with an enterprise value of about $82.7 billion, and is expected to close after Warner Bros' global network division is spun off into a new public company by Q3 2026 [8]. - If the acquisition is not approved, Netflix will pay Warner Bros a breakup fee of up to $5.8 billion, which is significantly higher than typical breakup fees [10]. Group 2: Paramount's Hostile Takeover Bid - Paramount has launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros, offering $30 per share in cash, valuing the company at $108.4 billion, which is a 139% premium over Warner Bros' unaffected stock price [4]. - Paramount claims its offer is more beneficial for shareholders, providing an additional $18 billion in cash compared to Netflix's proposal [3]. - The merger between Paramount and Warner Bros is positioned as one of the largest media transactions in history, aimed at enhancing competition in the streaming market [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the announcements, Paramount's stock rose by 9%, while Warner Bros' stock increased by over 4%, and Netflix's stock fell by more than 3% [5]. - The combined market share of Netflix and HBO Max in the U.S. streaming market is approximately 30%, which raises concerns about potential antitrust violations if the merger proceeds [9]. - Bipartisan criticism has emerged regarding the merger, with concerns that it could harm consumer interests by creating a streaming giant with 450 million users [13]. Group 4: Regulatory Scrutiny - Trump's comments on the merger have led to a decrease in the perceived likelihood of the acquisition being approved, with market predictions dropping from 60% to 23% [12]. - The U.S. Department of Justice is expected to conduct a lengthy review of the merger, which could last at least 10 months [9]. - European regulators may also initiate a deep review of Netflix's proposal, reflecting broader concerns about competition and consumer pricing [14].