【广发金工】指数成分股调整的冲击系数测算

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the growing scale of passive index funds, which reached a total of 4.9 trillion yuan by the end of September, with 1,548 passive index funds (ETFs and off-market funds) [7][11] - The article discusses the periodic adjustments of major indices like the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500, which occur every June and December, potentially creating investment opportunities due to significant changes in constituent stocks [4][5] Group 2 - Historical adjustment effects show that stocks added to indices tend to outperform the index in the two weeks prior to their inclusion, while stocks removed from indices generally underperform [12][14] - The average excess return for stocks added to the SSE 50 index in the two weeks before inclusion is 4.89%, with a success rate of 66.67% [15] - For the CSI 300 index, the average excess return for added stocks is 4.04%, with a success rate of 59.39% [18] Group 3 - The article presents the latest adjustment impact calculations, indicating that 572 stocks are involved in adjustments, with 20 stocks seeing net buy amounts exceeding 1 billion yuan and 14 stocks with net sell amounts over 1 billion yuan [25] - The impact coefficients for stocks show that 18 stocks have coefficients exceeding 2, indicating significant buying pressure, while 46 stocks have coefficients below -2, indicating selling pressure [25] Group 4 - The article outlines the index compilation schemes, noting that most indices have a weight limit of 10%, with some allowing up to 15% for individual stocks [24] - The methodology for calculating the impact of adjustments includes assessing the expected buy and sell amounts based on the total scale of tracking funds and the weights of constituent stocks [23]