刚刚，闪崩！突然，遭大举做空！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the stock price of Pop Mart, driven by increased short-selling activity and concerns over its sales growth in the U.S. market, particularly during the Black Friday sales period [2][4][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 9, Pop Mart's stock price dropped over 6% during trading, closing down 5.04% at HKD 190.3 per share, following a previous drop of over 8% [4]. - The company's market capitalization is now HKD 255.56 billion, having lost over HKD 200 billion since its peak in August [4]. - Short-selling data shows a significant increase, with short positions reaching HKD 10.92 billion, a rise of over 210% from the previous day [2][4]. Group 2: Sales Growth Concerns - Overseas institutions predict that Pop Mart's sales growth in the U.S. will slow to below 500% this quarter, down from an earlier forecast of 1200% [2][5]. - Analysts express concerns that the sales momentum in North America has weakened, impacting investor confidence in Pop Mart's growth prospects [5][6]. Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Predictions - Bernstein initiated coverage on Pop Mart with an "underperform" rating and a target price of HKD 225 per share, which is now below the current trading price [6]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts that under a bear case scenario, Pop Mart's revenue could decline by 20% in China and 10% overseas by 2026, leading to a significant drop in net profit [8]. - Conversely, in a bull case scenario, if growth continues and new IPs are introduced, revenue could increase by 30% in China and 50% overseas, with net profit exceeding RMB 23.1 billion [8]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategies - Different types of investors are influencing Pop Mart's stock price, including those focused on short-term sales trends and long-term value based on the growth potential of the collectible toy industry [11]. - Citigroup remains optimistic about Pop Mart's future growth, citing the untapped value of its core IP, Labubu, and upcoming product releases [10]. - Morgan Stanley estimates that Labubu's sales will reach RMB 15.5 billion this year, with a projected growth slowdown by 2026 due to potential consumer attrition [12].