Omdia：美国PC出货量连续两季度同比下降 1%，惠普领跑，苹果实现双位数增长

Core Insights - Omdia's latest research indicates that U.S. PC shipments (excluding tablets) are projected to decline by 1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, totaling 17.7 million units, marking the second consecutive quarter of decline. Despite macroeconomic pressures, consumer shipments grew by 8% to 7.6 million units in the same quarter, while commercial shipments remained stable with a decline of less than 1%. However, the education and government sectors experienced significant declines, with shipments down 23% year-on-year. Omdia remains optimistic about the holiday season, forecasting a 4% growth in U.S. PC shipments for 2025 [2][4]. Market Segmentation - The consumer market is expected to show strong performance in 2025, with shipments projected at 26.8 million units, reflecting a growth rate of 1.9%. The commercial market is forecasted to reach 31.5 million units, with a growth rate of 7.1%. The government sector is anticipated to see shipments of 3.9 million units, growing by 2.9%, while the education sector is projected to decline by 2.4% to 9.4 million units. Overall, total shipments are expected to reach 71.7 million units in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.5% [7][8]. Inventory and Economic Factors - Omdia analysts note that the education and government sectors are experiencing a downward trend due to reduced funding and significant layoffs in these areas, leading to decreased technology spending. Additionally, high inventory levels established earlier in the year to mitigate tariff impacts are being gradually consumed. A recent channel survey indicates that global commercial channel partners expect inventory levels to decrease in Q4 2025 [4][7]. Consumer Confidence and Future Outlook - Despite the strong performance in the consumer market, recent reports indicate a notable decline in U.S. consumer confidence. Factors such as ongoing tariffs, inflation, high interest rates, rising unemployment, credit card debt, and loan default rates are contributing to this decline. Omdia predicts that consumer PC shipments may decrease in Q4 2025, but overall, the U.S. PC market is expected to achieve growth, with year-end performance anticipated to surpass the first two quarters [7][8].