航司运一位旅客赚不过苹果卖一个手机壳

Core Viewpoint - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasts that the global airline industry will achieve a net profit of $41 billion in 2026, up from $39.5 billion in 2025, marking a historical high despite ongoing supply chain challenges [3][4]. Financial Outlook - Total revenue for the airline industry is projected to reach $1.054 trillion in 2026, representing a 4.5% increase from $1.008 trillion in 2025 [3]. - Passenger traffic is expected to grow to 5.2 billion in 2026, a 4.4% increase compared to 2025 [3]. Profitability Analysis - The average net profit per passenger is estimated at $7.90 in 2026, which is lower than the historical peak of $8.50 in 2023 but remains consistent with 2025 [3][4]. - The airline industry's profit margins are notably thin, with IATA's Director General Willie Walsh highlighting that the profit from transporting one passenger is less than the profit from selling an iPhone case [4]. Cost Projections - Fuel costs are expected to slightly decrease to $252 billion in 2026, down 0.3% from $253 billion in 2025 [4]. - Non-fuel costs are projected to rise to $729 billion, a 5.8% increase from $689 billion in 2025, driven by aging fleets and supply chain disruptions [4][5]. Regional Insights - The Asia-Pacific region is estimated to generate a net profit of $6.6 billion in 2026, with China and India leading growth due to increased tourism and a growing middle class [5]. - However, the Asia-Pacific airlines have the lowest profit per passenger at $3.20, compared to $28.60 in the Middle East, $10.90 in Europe, $9.80 in North America, and $5.70 in Latin America [5]. Cargo Sector Performance - Air cargo volume is expected to reach 7.16 million tons in 2026, a 2.4% increase from 2025, defying pessimistic forecasts amid changing global trade dynamics [6]. - Despite a slight decline in cargo yield by 0.5%, it remains approximately 30% higher than pre-pandemic levels, supported by strong demand for e-commerce and semiconductor transportation [6].