芯世相·2025-12-10 06:29Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in DRAM and flash memory prices, particularly focusing on DDR5, and analyzes the underlying causes of this price increase, which appears to be driven by panic buying and supply chain disruptions rather than genuine shortages [3][4][10]. Group 1: DRAM Price Surge - In November 2025, DRAM and flash memory prices entered a new upward cycle, with DDR5 experiencing particularly abnormal price increases [3][4]. - Major DRAM manufacturers, including SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, have announced the cessation of DDR4 production, leading to a shortage and a rare Bit Cross phenomenon where DDR5 prices are lower than DDR4 prices [4][5]. - The price of DDR5 has shown a steep increase, with significant fluctuations observed in the market, indicating abnormal volatility [5][6]. Group 2: Panic Buying and Market Dynamics - The current price surge is characterized as "panic buying," similar to past crises where consumers hoarded products due to fear of shortages [8][10]. - Key factors driving this panic include server manufacturers increasing DDR5 inventory to meet the soaring demand for AI servers, and GPU manufacturers ramping up HBM procurement [10][11]. - Micron has decided to withdraw from the consumer-grade Crucial business to focus on enterprise and AI server production, reflecting the real production pressures in the market [11]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Future Implications - The demand for HBM and LPDDR is expected to increase, but the supply of GPUs from NVIDIA and AMD may not keep pace with this demand due to structural limitations in production capacity [12][18]. - The situation mirrors the pandemic-era mask shortages, where companies over-purchased components based on inflated demand expectations, leading to potential inventory issues in the future [16][19]. - As companies approach their fiscal year-end, they may attempt to offload excess inventory, potentially leading to price declines in the market [19][20].