白银狂飙112%，成今年最好投资品

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as the best-performing investment asset of the year, with a price increase of 112%, significantly outpacing gold's 60% rise, and recently reaching historical highs above $61 per ounce [1][4]. Price Movement - On December 10, silver prices hit a record high of $61.469 per ounce, marking the first time it surpassed $61 [1]. - COMEX silver also broke through $62 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw its main silver contract reach 14,388 yuan per kilogram, with an increase of over 5% [1][4]. Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - There has been a substantial increase in demand for precious metals due to rising debt levels and currency devaluation risks in major Western economies [4]. - Silver's smaller market size compared to gold makes it more sensitive to dollar fluctuations, resulting in higher volatility [4]. - Industrial demand for silver is expected to remain strong in the coming years, contributing to upward price pressure [4][6]. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is estimated at 87.6%, with expectations of further cuts into January [5]. - Market analysts suggest that the anticipated rate cuts are driving silver prices higher, alongside strong buying momentum [4][5]. Future Supply and Demand Outlook - The Silver Institute predicts a structural supply deficit of approximately 95 million ounces in the global silver market by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [7]. - Global silver supply is expected to remain stable at around 813 million ounces, while total demand may decline by about 4% to 1.12 billion ounces [7][8]. - The solar energy sector is projected to significantly boost silver demand, with an expected increase of nearly 150 million ounces annually from 2024 to 2030 due to new solar installations [7]. Inventory and Market Sentiment - Silver inventories in China have reached near-decade lows, with record exports of over 660 tons in October [8]. - The market sentiment remains bullish, driven by low inventories and strong industrial demand, although there are concerns about potential corrections due to overbought conditions [8][9]. Investment Trends - The largest silver ETF, SLV, has seen its holdings increase to 15,973.16 tons, reflecting strong investor interest [9]. - Analysts expect silver prices to trade between $43 and $62 per ounce in 2026, with investment demand being a key driver, although fluctuations in sentiment could impact this outlook [9].