Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects China's economy to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, which is an upward revision of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the October World Economic Outlook [2] - The IMF attributes the improved growth forecast to China's effective macroeconomic stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on exports [2] - The IMF emphasizes the need for China to transition to a consumption-driven growth model, reducing reliance on exports and investments, and suggests urgent implementation of more robust expansionary macroeconomic policies [4][5] Group 2 - The IMF forecasts that China's overall inflation will rise from 0% in 2025 to 0.8% in 2026, remaining lower than that of its trading partners [4] - The current account surplus is expected to reach 3.3% of GDP in 2025, indicating a strong external position [4] - Structural reforms are recommended to address productivity slowdown and labor force shrinkage, with priorities including opening up the service sector and implementing labor market reforms to tackle skill mismatches and youth unemployment [5]
IMF上调中国经济增速预期
21世纪经济报道·2025-12-10 10:18