聊一个周期反转的机会

Core Viewpoint - The dry bulk shipping market is entering a new cycle driven by supply constraints, demand growth, and geopolitical factors, with structural opportunities emerging in the industry [4][7][8]. Supply Side - The dry bulk fleet is experiencing significant supply tightness, with the order book for 2025 representing only 11% of total capacity, the lowest in 25 years [9]. - The scrapping of old ships is intensifying, with the expected scrapping volume increasing from 4.7 million deadweight tons in 2024 to 6.6 million in 2025, and projected to reach 9.7 million in 2026 [9]. - New ship orders have plummeted by 89.5%, leading to a low growth rate in overall industry capacity [9]. Demand Side - The West African Simandou iron ore project is a key demand driver, with potential production of 120 million tons of iron ore, significantly increasing transportation distances and demand for dry bulk shipping [10]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to boost commodity trade, lowering costs for companies to stockpile and expand, which in turn is likely to increase dry bulk shipping demand [10]. - Geopolitical tensions are reshaping trade routes, indirectly increasing shipping demand by lengthening transport distances for certain commodities [11]. Shipping Cycle Forecast - Short-term (H1 2026): The market will be in a "game period" with Cape-sized vessels benefiting the most from the new demand, while traditional cargo types may struggle [13]. - Mid-term (H2 2026 - 2027): The market is expected to enter a main upward wave as the Simandou project ramps up production and interest rate cuts continue to support demand [14]. - Long-term (Post-2028): The market will shift towards a "cycle dividend + transformation premium" phase, with a focus on green transformation and diversified cargo types [15]. Investment Opportunities - Cape-sized vessel operators are positioned to benefit directly from the increased shipments from the Simandou project, making them core targets during the upward cycle [18]. - Companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation are significant players in the dry bulk market, with large fleets that can capitalize on rising freight rates [19]. - Companies involved in green ship conversion and operation are expected to gain valuation premiums due to stricter environmental policies [20]. Market Dynamics - The current dry bulk cycle differs from previous cycles (2008 and 2016) due to structural demand increases and institutional supply constraints, leading to a more differentiated and sustainable market [21]. - To capitalize on this opportunity, a focus on specific segments and precise understanding of industry logic and vessel supply-demand dynamics is essential [22].