白银迈入60美元时代

Core Viewpoint - The international silver price has officially entered the "60 USD era," with COMEX silver futures breaking through the 60 USD/ounce mark, reaching a high of 62.14 USD/ounce, and spot silver hitting a record of 61.6 USD/ounce. The cumulative increase in COMEX silver futures for the year has reached 109%, significantly outpacing gold's 60% increase, indicating that the silver bull market is accelerating [3][4]. Price Movement - Since early November, both domestic and international silver prices have risen significantly, with COMEX silver futures up over 24% and Shanghai silver futures also increasing by 24%, surpassing 14,419 CNY/kg [5][6]. - The rapid increase in silver prices has led to a reassessment of bullish expectations, with some analysts adjusting their outlook to a neutral rating due to the speed of the price rise [3][6]. Market Dynamics - Speculative funds have heavily entered the silver market, contributing to the short-term strength of precious metals. Exchanges have responded by increasing margin requirements and adjusting price limits [6]. - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to two main factors: the inclusion of silver in the U.S. critical minerals list and the rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have increased from 40% to 95% [6]. Supply and Demand Factors - Global silver inventories have significantly decreased, with COMEX silver inventory dropping from 1.65 million tons to 1.42 million tons in two months, and both Shanghai and Hong Kong silver inventories reaching near 10-year lows [8]. - The gold-silver ratio has quickly declined from previous highs to around 72, the lowest since August 2021, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that silver prices may continue to rise due to the combined effects of the Federal Reserve potentially restarting its rate-cutting cycle, rising inflation expectations, and ongoing declines in silver inventory [8]. - However, there is a need to closely monitor the delivery situation of COMEX silver and changes in inventory levels, as any easing of supply constraints could lead to significant price volatility [8][9].