2026年全球保险业展望：AI“重编码”游戏规则

Core Insights - The global insurance industry is entering a phase of slowed growth and profit pressure, moving away from a decade driven by scale [6][8] - External factors such as economic fluctuations and geopolitical tensions continue to impact traditional profit models, while climate change poses significant risks to property insurers [6][8] - The competitive landscape is shifting from a focus on licensing and scale to one centered around technology, capital, and service capabilities [8][35] Non-Life Insurance Sector - The non-life insurance sector is facing a new pressure phase after exiting a difficult underwriting cycle, with global premium growth expected to slow down [10] - The underwriting cost ratio in the U.S. is projected to rise from 97.2% in 2024 to 99% in 2026, further compressing profit margins [10] - Factors driving cost increases include tariffs, supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and rising material prices, particularly affecting auto and property insurance [10][11] - Legal risks are increasing complexity in non-life insurance, with rising litigation financing leading to higher claims rates and severity [10] Life and Annuity Insurance - Life insurance premium growth is slowing in developed markets, while annuity sales in the U.S. are expected to reach $432.4 billion in 2024, continuing strong growth [13] - The asset management size in the insurance industry is projected to grow by 25% to $4.5 trillion by 2024, with personal credit becoming a larger share [14] - The integration of private equity into the insurance sector is accelerating, reflecting dual pressures on both asset and liability sides [15][16] Group Insurance Sector - The group insurance sector is evolving towards a tighter integration of employee benefits and insurance services, with new growth areas emerging [20] - The B2B2C model in group insurance emphasizes the importance of user experience for both employers and employees [21] - Digital access capabilities are becoming critical in group insurance competition, with companies needing to integrate products into employer benefit platforms [23] AI and Technology Integration - The report highlights that the main barrier to scaling AI in the insurance industry is not the algorithms but rather data quality and system infrastructure [26][29] - Successful AI applications are being implemented across various functions, such as underwriting and claims processing, enhancing efficiency and service delivery [30] - The future insurance workforce will need to focus on complex problem-solving and customer engagement rather than routine tasks [30] Customer Experience Transformation - Customer expectations are shifting towards speed, convenience, and personalization, necessitating a move from "omni-channel" to "channel adaptation" [33] - Insurers must provide seamless service experiences, with simple requests directed to self-service channels and complex inquiries handled by experienced professionals [33] - The overall competitive structure of the insurance industry is being redefined, with technology, capital flexibility, and customer-centric service systems becoming key competitive factors [35]