凌晨突发！美联储宣布：降息25个基点！2026年可能只降一次！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive meeting of rate cuts, totaling a 75 basis point reduction for the year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 9 to 3 to reduce the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, adjusting the target range to 3.5%-3.75% [3][6]. - The dot plot indicates that officials expect another 25 basis point cut in 2026 and another in 2027, consistent with previous forecasts [3][17]. Economic Projections - Officials' median projections show an expected inflation rate of 2.4% by the end of 2026, down from a previous estimate of 2.6%, and GDP growth is projected at 2.3%, up from 1.8% [5][13]. Internal Disagreements - The decision reflects a split among policymakers regarding whether a weak labor market or persistent inflation poses a greater threat to the economy [6][8]. - This marks the first time since 2019 that three officials voted against the decision, with two regional Fed presidents preferring to maintain rates and one advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [7][10]. Market Reactions and Future Actions - The Fed has approved the repurchase of short-term U.S. Treasury securities to maintain "ample" bank reserves, indicating a shift in monetary policy approach [8][14]. - The statement's wording was slightly adjusted to indicate that future decisions will consider the magnitude and timing of further adjustments [10][15]. Labor Market and Inflation - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.4% in September, while the preferred inflation measure showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in September, still above the 2% target [11][12]. - The Fed noted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, but there are rising risks in the labor market [15][16].