最新变化！港股IPO破发悄然抬头，什么原因？

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a resurgence, with a total IPO scale of HKD 267.1 billion as of now, potentially reclaiming the top position globally for IPOs in 2025. However, the phenomenon of IPOs breaking below their issue price has re-emerged since November, raising concerns about investor sentiment and the quality of new listings [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Market Trends - In 2024, 25 out of 70 newly listed stocks in Hong Kong broke below their issue price, resulting in a breakage rate of 35.71%. In the first half of 2025, 13 out of 43 new stocks broke below their issue price, with a breakage rate of 30.23% [1]. - Following the reform of the IPO pricing mechanism in August, the breakage rate significantly decreased to 7.14% for new listings until the end of October, with only 2 out of 28 stocks breaking below their issue price. However, from November onwards, the breakage rate surged to 42.10% for 19 new listings [2]. Group 2: Pricing Mechanism and Investor Behavior - The new pricing mechanism allows issuers to choose between two distribution methods, with most new listings opting for Method B, which allocates only 10% of shares to retail investors, significantly increasing the pricing power of institutional investors [2]. - The current misalignment between primary pricing and secondary market risk appetite indicates that the market is absorbing previously accumulated "pile-up issuances," while the willingness of secondary market funds to take over has not improved [2]. Group 3: Challenges in IPO Pricing - Three main issues in the current IPO pricing in Hong Kong are identified: 1. The valuation anchor remains skewed towards A-shares or historical highs, while Hong Kong investors prioritize cash flow discounting and dividend returns [3]. 2. A high proportion of cornerstone and long-term placements with long lock-up periods leads to a small float, making it susceptible to short-term trading [3]. 3. Limited flexibility in the pricing range and insufficient tolerance for downwards valuation adjustments by underwriting teams and issuers, resulting in reliance on the secondary market to correct pricing through breakage [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to remain active in 2026 due to several factors, including stricter regulations in the U.S. market, ongoing policy benefits, improved liquidity conditions, and continued interest from mainland enterprises in listing in Hong Kong [3].