美联储连续3次降息0.25%，未来降息预期存分歧

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has decided to lower the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the third consecutive 0.25% cut, amidst significant internal disagreement regarding future rate adjustments [1][5]. Group 1: FOMC Decisions and Predictions - The FOMC's internal opinions are divided, with 7 out of 19 participants predicting no further rate cuts in 2026, while others forecast varying numbers of cuts [1][5]. - The median forecast indicates one additional rate cut in 2026, with some members suggesting as many as five cuts [5][6]. - The neutral interest rate level, which is seen as the endpoint for rate cuts, remains a contentious point among FOMC members, with estimates varying significantly [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate is projected to remain at 4.4% for 2026, consistent with previous forecasts, while economic growth is expected to rise from 1.8% to 2.3% [6][9]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated to increase by 2.4%, exceeding the 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [8][10]. Group 3: Leadership and Policy Implications - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of data in determining future policy adjustments, stating that the current rate is neutral for the economy [5][10]. - The potential nomination of a new Fed chair by President Trump could influence future monetary policy, with the possibility of increased pressure for rate cuts [11][12].