白银再创新高，引崩盘担忧！分析师却称“这次不一样”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in silver prices, which have reached a ten-year high following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with a year-to-date increase of over 116% [2][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Silver Price Increase - The rise in silver prices from late November to early December is attributed to renewed expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and low inventory levels at the London Metal Exchange (LME) [6]. - From December last year to March this year, concerns over U.S. government tariff policies led to a significant outflow of silver from Europe to the U.S., resulting in a 16% decrease in LME silver inventory, totaling 4,330 tons [6]. - The influx of funds into silver ETFs has created a situation where LME inventories are insufficient to meet ETF demand, leading to a "short squeeze" in the London silver market [6]. - The current silver price increase is driven by both supply-demand dynamics and market sentiment, with the photovoltaic industry being a major demand driver, increasing its share of total silver demand from 8.1% in 2021 to 17% in 2024 [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global mined silver production is projected to be 820 million ounces in 2024, significantly lower than historical peaks, with supply constraints due to silver being a byproduct of other metals [7]. - The silver market has experienced a supply deficit for five consecutive years, leading to a substantial decline in inventories [7]. - The U.S. has classified silver as a critical mineral, heightening supply chain concerns and exacerbating market tensions due to increased hoarding behavior among traders [7]. Group 3: Differences from Previous Price Surges - The current silver market differs from past surges in 1980 and 2011, as the strategic resource status of silver has been reinforced by U.S. tariff and resource policies [9]. - The U.S. Geological Survey added silver to its list of critical minerals in November 2023, indicating potential policy risks that could impact physical silver trade and regional inventory management [9]. - Unlike previous surges driven by speculative behavior or lack of industrial demand, the current increase is supported by a combination of supply-demand imbalance, policy easing, and robust industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector [10]. Group 4: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - Analysts express a cautious short-term outlook due to potential volatility in silver prices, driven by speculative trading, while maintaining a positive mid-term view based on fundamental factors [12]. - The silver market is expected to experience high volatility, with the potential for significant price fluctuations, especially if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts do not meet expectations or if there is a slowdown in photovoltaic installations [12]. - Despite the current high gold-silver ratio of around 70, which is above historical averages, there remains potential for silver price appreciation due to ongoing supply-demand gaps [13].