固收指数月报 | 错配风险推升！外资撤离美国加剧流动性压力

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market through its flagship Bloomberg China Fixed Income Index [3] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index experienced a slight decline of 0.02% in November, with a year-to-date return of 0.69% [5] - Shorter-term bonds outperformed longer-term bonds in November, with 10-year and above bonds returning -0.67% and 1-3 year bonds returning 0.12% respectively [5] Index Performance Summary - The China Aggregate Index (I08271CN) recorded a month-to-date return of -0.02% and a year-to-date return of 0.69%, with an index level of 244.63 [7] - The China Treasury and Policy Banks Index (I32561CN) had a return of -0.11% in November, with a year-to-date return of 0.49% [7] - The 1-3 Year maturity segment (I08279CN) achieved a month-to-date return of 0.12% and a year-to-date return of 1.13% [7] Economic Outlook - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to stabilize around 1.8% by year-end, potentially testing the 2% mark in 2026, supported by positive macroeconomic fundamentals and government policies [13] - U.S. liquidity pressures are identified as a primary cause for declines in dollar-denominated risk assets, with a widening of credit spreads in U.S. corporate bonds observed [13] - The Bloomberg Asia (ex-Japan) USD bond index is projected to experience a mild decline in 2026, as the benefits of U.S. Federal Reserve easing may be offset by widening credit spreads [13]