白银突破62美元又创新高，年内大涨近120%

Core Viewpoint - Silver has emerged as a leading investment asset in 2023, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 120%, particularly accelerating in the second half of the year [3][4]. Price Movements - As of December 11, 2023, the spot silver price surpassed $62 per ounce, reaching a high of $62.884 per ounce, marking a new historical peak [1][2]. - COMEX silver also broke through $63 per ounce, hitting a peak of $63.25 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver contract reached a high of 14,655 yuan per kilogram, with an increase of over 5% [1][4]. Market Drivers - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75% has been a significant factor, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year, totaling a 75 basis point reduction [4]. - Analysts suggest that strong industrial demand for silver, particularly in sectors like AI servers, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles, is driving prices higher [5][6]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The Silver Institute predicts a structural supply deficit of approximately 95 million ounces in the global silver market by 2025, continuing a trend of supply shortages for the fifth consecutive year [8]. - Demand from the photovoltaic industry is expected to significantly increase, with the International Energy Agency forecasting an addition of 4000 GW of solar capacity from 2024 to 2030, potentially raising silver demand by nearly 150 million ounces annually [8]. Future Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate that silver prices will continue to experience strong fluctuations due to investor sensitivity to news and data, especially after a substantial increase of nearly 120% this year [8]. - Despite potential short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for silver remains bullish, supported by macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in global economic policies [9].