超预期！降息150个基点

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey has unexpectedly lowered the one-week repo rate by 150 basis points to 38%, indicating a complex economic environment with declining inflation and rising GDP growth [3][5]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - On December 11, the Central Bank of Turkey announced a reduction in the policy rate from 39.5% to 38%, exceeding market expectations of a 100 basis point cut [3]. - The Central Bank noted that inflation trends showed a slight decline in October and November, with November's consumer inflation rate falling below expectations due to an unexpected drop in food prices [5]. - The recent inflation data has expanded the Central Bank's operational space, with the interest rate and inflation differential widening to approximately 8.5 percentage points, increasing market bets on further rate cuts [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Turkish Statistical Institute reported that the monthly inflation rate slowed to 0.87% in November, the lowest since May 2023, while the annual inflation rate decreased to 31.07%, below the expected 31.6% [5]. - The third quarter GDP growth rate was higher than expected, indicating a coexistence of declining inflation and rising economic growth, complicating policy decisions [5]. - JP Morgan's recent report forecasts a 4.4% growth in Turkey's GDP for 2026, with an acceleration expected in the second half of the year, although consumer confidence remains fragile despite improving macroeconomic conditions [8].