“存储荒”前所未有！内存芯片Q4或涨价35%

Core Insights - The global storage industry is facing unprecedented supply-demand tension due to surging AI demand and industry capacity adjustments [4] - UBS forecasts that the DRAM supply shortage will persist until Q1 2027, with DDR memory demand expected to grow by 20.7%, significantly outpacing supply growth [5] - The NAND flash shortage is anticipated to last until Q3 2026, leading to the most intense price increase cycle in nearly 30 years [6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major cloud service providers are extending their pre-purchase orders to 2028, indicating strong actual market demand rather than speculative hoarding [7][8] - Current inventory levels are critically low, with server DDR memory inventory sufficient for only 11 weeks, DRAM for personal computers and mobile devices for 9 weeks, and SSD inventory for just 8 weeks [7] Price Trends - UBS predicts a 35% quarter-on-quarter increase in DDR contract pricing and a 20% increase in NAND flash prices in Q4 this year, both exceeding previous expectations [6] - Further price increases are expected in Q1 2026, with DDR contract pricing projected to rise by 30% and NAND prices by 20% [6] Market Positioning - SK Hynix is expected to maintain a dominant position in the HBM4 market, holding approximately 70% market share [10] - UBS has raised target prices for leading storage manufacturers, increasing SK Hynix's target price from 710,000 KRW to 853,000 KRW and Samsung Electronics' target price from 128,000 KRW to 154,000 KRW, maintaining a buy rating for both [10]