券商密集看多银行股

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is expected to enter a phase of mild recovery in 2026, driven by macroeconomic policy support, stabilization of interest margins, and ongoing alleviation of existing risks [1][4][10]. Group 1: Industry Performance Outlook - Most institutions predict that the overall performance of listed banks will see slight positive growth, moving away from a period of stagnation, with revenue and net profit expected to grow by 0.69% and 0.95% in 2025, and 3.11% and 3.94% in 2026, respectively [4][5]. - Structural differentiation within the banking industry is emphasized, with larger banks and those with strong customer bases and efficient operations expected to outperform smaller banks [4][5]. - Institutions like Zheshang Securities forecast a more optimistic growth rate for net profit at 2.7% and revenue at 2.8% for 2026, highlighting a potential reversal of negative growth trends seen since 2023 [4][10]. Group 2: Interest Margin and Asset Quality - There is a consensus that the net interest margin is likely to stabilize in 2026, supported by improved deposit costs and reduced downward pressure on asset yields [7][8]. - Asset quality is expected to remain stable overall, but with structural pressures, particularly in retail assets and real estate exposure, which will influence individual bank performance [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are focused on three main areas: large state-owned banks, regional banks with strong local economic ties, and banks with specific recovery or transformation potential [12][13]. - Large state-owned banks are viewed as defensive choices due to their stable operations and attractive dividends, with recommendations for major banks like ICBC, ABC, CCB, and BOC [12]. - Regional banks, particularly those in economically vibrant areas, are seen as potential sources of excess returns, with specific mentions of banks like Chengdu Bank and Hangzhou Bank [12]. - Banks with convertible bonds or strong retail business foundations are also highlighted as opportunities for potential recovery and valuation enhancement [12].