中央经济工作会议，多位券商首席经济学家火速解读！

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, emphasized a shift in policy focus from quantity expansion to quality and efficiency, highlighting the integration of existing and new policies for better effectiveness [2][3]. Policy Framework - The macroeconomic policy maintains a positive tone but has undergone significant changes, with a shift from "promoting stability through growth" to "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency" [3][4]. - Fiscal policy will focus on maintaining necessary levels of deficit and debt, with a potential reduction in the deficit ratio to around 4% or slightly lower, emphasizing the optimization of expenditure structure [4][6]. - Monetary policy aims to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, with a more flexible approach to tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments [5][4]. Domestic Demand Strategy - The strategy to build a strong domestic market is prioritized, addressing the "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction and laying a long-term foundation for economic growth [6]. - Key highlights include optimizing the implementation of "two new" policies (equipment updates and trade-ins), establishing a plan for urban and rural income growth, and addressing the decline in fixed asset investment [6][7]. Innovation and Competition Order - The conference underscored the importance of innovation and the cultivation of new growth drivers, with a focus on artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies [8]. - The "anti-involution" initiative has been elevated to a primary reform task, aiming to standardize competition and eliminate barriers to high-quality development [8][9]. Real Estate and Capital Market - The policy approach to the real estate market has shifted from "stabilizing prices" to a long-term model of "controlling growth, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply," indicating a lower priority for large-scale stimulus [9]. - The capital market is set for deeper reforms, with a focus on enhancing market mechanisms and supporting new quality productivity, laying the groundwork for a "technology growth" style in the A-share market for 2026 [9].