智能手机、笔电品牌2026年Q1预计将涨价

Core Insights - TrendForce's latest survey indicates that due to anticipated significant increases in memory prices in Q1 2026, global end products will face severe cost challenges, leading smartphone and laptop industries to raise product prices and lower specifications, with sales outlooks being downgraded [2][3]. Group 1: Impact on Smartphone Market - The impact of memory on the BOM cost for consumer devices like smartphones and PCs is rapidly increasing, with even high-performing iPhone models expected to see a notable rise in memory's share of BOM cost, prompting Apple to reassess new device pricing and potentially reduce or eliminate price cuts on older models [2]. - For Android brands targeting the mid-to-low price market, the rising memory prices will force these brands to increase new device pricing and adjust old device prices or supply cycles to mitigate losses [2]. Group 2: Impact on Laptop Market - The rise in memory prices will lead laptop brands to adjust their product mix, procurement strategies, and regional sales layouts, with high-end lightweight laptops being the first to experience significant price pressure due to their design constraints [3]. - In the consumer laptop market, while demand is sensitive to changes in specifications and prices, existing inventory of finished products and low-cost memory will support profitability in the short term. However, a significant price adjustment is expected in the PC market by Q2 2026 [4]. Group 3: Specification Adjustments - "Specification reduction" or "delaying upgrades" has become a necessary strategy for smartphone and laptop brands to balance costs, particularly with DRAM, which has a high cost share [4]. - High-end and mid-range products are expected to see DRAM capacity specifications converge towards the market's minimum standards, slowing the pace of upgrades. In the low-end market, smartphones are projected to revert to a primary configuration of 4GB by 2026, while low-cost laptops will face limitations due to processor compatibility and operating system requirements, making further DRAM reductions unlikely in the short term [4][5].