新会计准则下寿险公司的合同服务边际比率逐年走低，何时触底？

Core Viewpoint - The life insurance industry has a unique profit recognition mechanism characterized by "delayed release," where potential profits from policy sales are not immediately recognized due to the long-term nature and uncertainty of insurance contracts. This results in profits being recorded as "Contractual Service Margin" (CSM) and amortized over the service period [1][4]. Insurance Contract Liability Structure - Insurance contract liabilities consist of present value of future cash flows, non-financial risk adjustments, and Contractual Service Margin (CSM). The present value of future cash flows is calculated based on expected premiums and payouts, discounted to present value using a risk-free rate plus a liquidity premium [3][7]. - Non-financial risk adjustments are additional amounts added to liabilities to compensate for uncertainties such as mortality rates and claims [3][7]. - CSM represents the expected future profits related to insurance services that have not yet been recognized, acting as a "profit pool" for future services [3][7]. CSM Ratio - The insurance contract service margin ratio is a key indicator calculated as CSM divided by total insurance contract liabilities. This ratio indicates the proportion of "deferred future profits" within the total insurance liabilities [9]. - As of June 30, 2025, the CSM ratio for seven listed insurance companies was 13.1%, down from 21.4% in 2022, reflecting a downward trend influenced by declining long-term interest rates [10][12][16]. New Business Profitability - The new business profitability formula indicates that the initial recognition of CSM minus any initial losses, divided by the present value of future cash inflows, provides insight into profitability per premium collected. This metric is expected to improve as new business contributions to overall CSM increase over time [14][16]. - In 2023, new business profitability began to rebound, with projections for 2024 indicating an increase to 8.6%, suggesting positive effects from regulatory measures [14][16]. CSM Ratio Variations - Differences in CSM ratios among listed insurance companies can be attributed to various factors, including the quality of new business and the impact of regulatory changes. For instance, Taiping Life had the highest CSM ratio at 14.6% among the analyzed companies [16].