【商用车】2025年11月轻型商用车市场预测研究报告

Industry Insights - The "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" was released by the China Society of Automotive Engineers on October 22, aiming for over 80% penetration of new energy vehicles in the market by 2040, positioning China among the world's leading automotive powers [2] - The new roadmap emphasizes sustainable development of energy-saving vehicles, iterative upgrades of new energy vehicles, and the evolution of intelligent connected vehicles, structured into a comprehensive report with five technical groups and 26 specialized topics [2] Product Analysis - The development of new energy VANs is influenced by policy regulations, including a reduction in vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles from 2026 to 2027, with specific technical requirements for electric passenger vehicles [4] - The penetration rate of new energy in specialized VANs is currently low at 10.2%, with significant growth potential as battery technology advances and policies support the transition [14] - The trend towards larger vehicle sizes and cargo volumes in new energy VANs is evident, with a shift from vehicles under 4.5 meters to those between 4.5-5 meters, and cargo volumes increasing from 5 cubic meters to 7-8 cubic meters [15] Sales Forecast - The light commercial vehicle market is expected to maintain stability amid structural adjustments, with sales projected to reach approximately 2.837 million units in 2025, reflecting a growth of 4.1%, and a slight increase to around 2.9 million units in 2026 [19]