外卖大战熄火，茶饮品牌谁裸泳，谁狂奔？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a subsidy war in the takeaway tea beverage market, highlighting the contrasting fortunes of different brands as the subsidies end and the industry faces a seasonal downturn [3]. Group 1: Impact of Subsidy Withdrawal - After the cessation of subsidies, many tea shops experienced a dramatic drop in orders, with some reporting as few as ten orders a day compared to previous highs of 70-100 orders [4][6]. - The decline in orders is attributed to seasonal factors and consumer fatigue, with some brands managing to stabilize their sales while others face significant challenges [5][6]. - The overall takeaway market saw a significant shift, with brands like "茉莉奶白" and "一点点" also feeling the effects of reduced consumer interest post-subsidy [6]. Group 2: Winners and Losers in the Market - "古茗" emerged as a notable winner during the subsidy war, rapidly expanding its store count from approximately 9,914 to over 12,000, but is now facing operational pressures as daily sales struggle to meet previous highs [7][8]. - "蜜雪冰城" is identified as the biggest winner, reporting a 39.3% year-on-year revenue increase to 14.87 billion yuan and a net profit growth of 44.1% to 2.72 billion yuan, benefiting from efficient cost management [8]. - Conversely, "奈雪的茶" illustrates the "increased revenue without increased profit" dilemma, with 48.1% of its revenue reliant on takeaway orders, leading to a 14.4% decline in overall revenue [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Challenges - The tea beverage industry is undergoing a rapid transformation, with a net increase of 26,000 stores in the third quarter, while approximately 150,000 stores have closed in the past year, indicating a significant shakeout [10]. - The competitive landscape has intensified, with brands forced to expand rapidly and engage in price wars, leading to a phenomenon of "internal competition" that threatens profitability [10]. - The article emphasizes that while the subsidy war temporarily reshaped consumer price expectations, the long-term sustainability of such strategies remains questionable as brands grapple with high operational costs and market saturation [10].