黑石罕见失手

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant losses incurred by Blackstone in its investment in senior housing, highlighting the challenges faced in the sector and the reasons behind the poor performance of these assets [3][9][22]. Group 1: Investment Overview - Blackstone acquired over 90 senior housing properties across the U.S. for approximately $1.8 billion eight years ago, but the current valuation has collapsed [3][4]. - The firm has been selling these assets at steep discounts, with reports of transactions at 30%, 40%, and 70% off the original purchase price [4][9]. - As of now, Blackstone has sold about two-thirds of the assets from this investment, with estimated losses exceeding $600 million [4][9]. Group 2: Market Context - The investment was made during a period of optimism in the real estate market, particularly in senior housing, driven by the aging "baby boomer" population [11][12]. - The U.S. population aged 85 and older is projected to double from 6.7 million in 2020 to nearly 14.4 million by 2040, creating a perceived strong demand for senior housing [11][12]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - Blackstone's management of the senior housing properties faced significant issues, including regulatory warnings related to resident care and management failures [15][16]. - The operational complexity of senior housing, characterized as labor-intensive and requiring a large workforce, has led to increased costs and challenges in maintaining profitability [16][17]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The average occupancy rate for senior housing has declined post-pandemic, with current rates around 85.6%, which is below pre-pandemic levels [19]. - The middle-tier senior housing market, where Blackstone invested, is experiencing a "affordability crisis," with many seniors unable to afford the rent, leading to lower occupancy rates [21][22]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the current losses, Blackstone may consider re-entering the senior housing market in the future, as the aging population will likely continue to drive demand [22]. - The overall performance of Blackstone's BREP VIII fund remains strong, with successful investments in logistics and data centers offsetting the losses in senior housing [22][23].