黄金上涨，白银调整！机构怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have shown remarkable performance in the asset class this year, with gold prices rising by 60% and silver prices more than doubling [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - As of December 12, gold prices approached previous highs, with London gold rising by 0.47% to $4299.29 per ounce, and year-to-date gains reaching 63.83% [2][3] - In contrast, silver prices experienced a significant drop, closing down 2.5% at $61.92 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 114.35% [2][3] Group 2: Institutional Outlook on Gold and Silver - Institutions remain more optimistic about gold compared to silver, with Goldman Sachs predicting gold prices could reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by increased demand for risk diversification amid economic uncertainties [5] - The World Gold Council anticipates that ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties will continue to influence the gold market, with potential for gold prices to rise if economic growth slows and interest rates decline [6] Group 3: Factors Influencing Silver Prices - Carsten Menke from Swiss Bank highlighted two triggers for silver's price movements: its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list and rising market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which could boost bullish sentiment [4] - Despite the positive fundamentals for silver, the price reaction appears excessive, leading to a tactical downgrade of silver's outlook to neutral while maintaining a constructive view on gold [4]