避孕药免税取消在即，解读来了

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming adjustment in the value-added tax (VAT) policy for contraceptive drugs in China, effective January 1, 2026, is expected to impact pricing strategies and cost structures within the industry, potentially leading to price increases for these products [2][4][9]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The exemption from VAT for contraceptive drugs and devices, in place since the 1990s, will be lifted, reflecting a shift in national policy aimed at encouraging childbirth and optimizing population structure [4][9]. - The new VAT law will allow companies to deduct input VAT but will also impose output VAT, creating cost pressures for manufacturers [4][5]. Group 2: Market Impact and Pricing Strategies - Experts suggest that the removal of the VAT exemption may lead to price increases, but companies will need to balance consumer acceptance with business objectives when adjusting prices [5][9]. - A differentiated pricing strategy is recommended, where products with high repurchase rates, like emergency contraceptives, could see limited price increases of 3%-5% to retain customer loyalty [5][9]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The contraceptive drug market is projected to grow to 8.5 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.3%, driven by policy and consumer demand [9]. - The competitive landscape is expected to shift, favoring larger companies that can leverage economies of scale and better manage costs, while smaller firms may struggle with price sensitivity and market consolidation pressures [9].