创投募资迎来“结构性”复苏

Core Viewpoint - The venture capital fundraising market is undergoing a structural recovery, driven by increased contributions from state-owned limited partners (LPs) while the willingness of market-oriented LPs to invest remains a challenge [1][4]. Group 1: Market Recovery - The venture capital fundraising market is experiencing a recovery, with the number of newly established funds and fundraising amounts showing signs of improvement in 2025, following a decline from 2022 to 2024 [3][4]. - In the first three quarters of this year, the number of new funds reached 3,501, with a total fundraising amount of 11,614.3 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 18.3% and 8% respectively [4]. Group 2: Challenges in Market-oriented LP Fundraising - Despite the recovery, fundraising from market-oriented LPs remains difficult, as many are still hesitant to invest due to past experiences where they did not recover their principal and profits [6][7]. - The investment return for LPs in the Chinese venture capital market has been significantly lower compared to their counterparts in the U.S., with a return of approximately 46 yuan for every 100 yuan invested from 2012 to 2022 [7]. Group 3: Shifts in Investment Strategies - There has been a notable shift in the investment strategies that appeal to market-oriented LPs, moving away from "scale" and "odds" strategies to a focus on "success rate" strategies, emphasizing the probability of successful exits [11][12]. - To adapt to this new preference, venture capital firms are restructuring their fundraising approaches by breaking down larger funds into smaller, targeted funds that focus on high-probability investment projects [12][13]. Group 4: The Role of State-owned LPs - State-owned LPs are becoming the dominant source of funding in the venture capital market, accounting for 81.2% of total contributions in the first half of 2024 [15]. - The increasing reliance on state-owned LPs raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of the venture capital industry, as it may not address the fundamental challenges of fundraising [16][17]. Group 5: New Capital Operation Models - To enhance the willingness of market-oriented LPs to invest, venture capital firms are exploring new capital operation models, such as incorporating corporate venture capital (CVC) to attract industrial capital as a significant LP [18].