周末！突发黑天鹅

Weekend Major Events - AI trading concerns were triggered by Broadcom's disappointing sales guidance, leading to an 11% drop in its stock and a 5% decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, marking the largest drop in months. This anxiety was initially sparked by Oracle, which saw its stock decline due to rising capital expenditures and delays in data center projects [2] - The Central Financial Office's Han Wenshu announced that China's economic indicators for 2025 are expected to exceed expectations, with a projected GDP of around 140 trillion yuan. Incremental policies will be implemented in 2026 based on changing circumstances [4] - The government is encouraging local business departments to utilize existing funding channels to promote consumption, emphasizing collaboration with financial support to stimulate consumer potential [5] - The People's Bank of China reiterated its commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain financial market stability, focusing on promoting economic growth and reasonable price recovery [6] - SpaceX's valuation has reached $800 billion, with plans for an IPO in 2026, indicating serious preparations for public listing [7] - The National Medical Insurance Administration aims to achieve "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth within policy scope by 2026, contingent on the fund's capacity [8] - Moutai plans to halt the issuance of off-plan quotas this year and reduce non-standard products next year, focusing on core products [9] - More threads regarding idle fundraising cash management by Moer Technology clarified that it will not affect project implementation [10] - Vanke's three extension proposals were not approved, but there is a five-day grace period for negotiations [11] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau supports stabilizing the real estate market and aims to create a new development model for real estate [12] Major Securities Firms' Latest Insights - CITIC Securities suggests a focus on both domestic and foreign demand, indicating that while external demand may face challenges, internal demand shows increasing potential for recovery [14] - Shenwan Hongyuan notes that the macro environment has reverted, but upward space for A-shares remains limited due to concerns over tech capital expenditures [15] - Guojin Securities emphasizes that fluctuations in financial market expectations will not halt the real economy's progress, and investors should focus on fundamental changes [17] - CITIC Jiantou believes that the market has completed its adjustment phase and anticipates a new wave of market activity driven by structural trends and capital market reforms [18] - Xinda Securities discusses the sustainability of the growth sector's rebound, suggesting that the current environment may limit the rebound potential of tech stocks [19] - Dongfang Caifu advises caution regarding external disturbances and suggests patience in market positioning, especially with upcoming economic data releases [20] - Huazhong Securities highlights the importance of turnover rates in assessing the growth sector's market opportunities [21][22] - Huaxi Securities recommends low-cost positioning for the upcoming cross-year market, supported by recent key meetings and improved market sentiment [23] - Dongwu Securities notes that the market is currently stabilizing after previous adjustments, with a focus on policy and data in the upcoming spring market [24] - Everbright Securities anticipates a favorable cross-year market supported by new policy deployments, with a focus on TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors [25]