AI圈最准的消息，都藏在这个小小的Web3网站里。

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the predictive capabilities of Polymarket, a web3 trading platform, particularly in relation to the release of AI models like GPT-5.2 and Gemini 3.0, highlighting its accuracy and reliability compared to traditional sources of information [4][30][94]. Group 1: Predictions and Accuracy - Polymarket demonstrated a high accuracy rate in predicting the release of GPT-5.2, maintaining a probability of over 80% for its release on December 11, 2023, with a peak of nearly 100% shortly before the event [14][19]. - The platform also accurately predicted that no new model would be released on December 9, 2023, when many expected it, showcasing its reliability [17][19]. - Polymarket's prediction accuracy is reported as 95% within four hours, 88% within a day, and 91% over a month, indicating its effectiveness in forecasting events [25]. Group 2: Functionality of Polymarket - Polymarket allows users to predict various events and place bets on outcomes, with prices reflecting the perceived probability of those events occurring [31][36]. - The platform operates on a unique mechanism where the price of "yes" or "no" tokens reflects the collective belief of participants, creating a dynamic market for predictions [42][44]. - The betting mechanism incentivizes participants to provide accurate information, as financial stakes are involved, leading to a more reliable aggregation of insights compared to traditional polls or opinions [75][78]. Group 3: Collective Intelligence - The article references the concept of "wisdom of the crowd," illustrating how collective predictions can often be more accurate than individual expert opinions, as demonstrated by historical examples [60][70]. - Polymarket effectively harnesses this principle by allowing diverse participants to contribute their insights through financial commitments, filtering out noise and unsubstantiated claims [76][90]. - The platform's design encourages informed participation, as individuals with insider knowledge or relevant information are more likely to engage in betting, thus enhancing the quality of predictions [79][82].