广发证券郭磊：2026年政策的“跨周期”特征将更明显，降息降准仍是政策工具选项

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for a dual approach of policy support and reform innovation to stimulate economic potential and address external challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Framework - The 2026 policy will exhibit more pronounced "cross-cycle" characteristics, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions remaining viable policy tools [1][2]. - The conference introduced five new "musts," including the need to fully tap economic potential to address insufficient effective demand and release domestic demand space [2]. - The focus on combining investment in physical assets and human capital highlights the importance of enhancing investments in education, healthcare, and social security to deepen growth functions [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy aims to stabilize economic growth and ensure reasonable price recovery, utilizing various tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [3]. - The emphasis on guiding financial institutions to support domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises indicates a prioritization of expanding domestic demand in financial policy [3]. - The observation of the GDP deflator's recovery slope in 2026 serves as a critical indicator for monitoring economic conditions [3].