专家：癌症2050年或将成可控制的慢性病

Core Viewpoint - Cancer is a significant global public health challenge, with the WHO reporting 10 million deaths in 2020, accounting for 1/6 of total deaths, and projections indicating that without urgent action, cancer deaths could exceed 18 million by 2050 [3][4]. Group 1: Current State of Cancer Research - China has emerged as a key player in global cancer research, with a record number of studies presented at major international oncology conferences, including 60 studies at the ESMO Asia Congress 2025 and 73 at the ASCO annual meeting [3]. - The National Healthcare Security Administration has added 36 cancer drugs to the 2025 basic medical insurance catalog, representing 31.58% of the new additions, thereby expanding treatment options for cancer patients [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook on Cancer Management - Experts predict that within the next 25 years, cancer will be recognized as a controllable chronic disease, with significant advancements in theoretical and technological innovations required to achieve this goal [4][5]. - The global burden of cancer is expected to rise, with an estimated 28.4 million new cases by 2040, a 47% increase from 19.3 million in 2020 [6]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Cancer Development - Five main factors contributing to cancer development have been identified: external triggers, infection-related factors, hormonal/receptor abnormalities, lifestyle-related factors, and psychological and immune-related triggers [7]. - The essence of cancer is a disruption in the body's regulatory mechanisms, leading to uncontrolled cell proliferation, which emphasizes the need for strategies that enhance the body's regulatory capabilities [7]. Group 4: Innovations in Cancer Treatment - The integration of advanced technologies such as AI, genomics, and precision medicine is expected to improve cancer survival rates significantly [8]. - A new classification standard for cancer is anticipated to revolutionize management and treatment, promoting a collaborative approach across multiple disciplines [8]. Group 5: Challenges Ahead - The transition from fragmented to integrated treatment poses challenges, including the urgent need for knowledge updates among healthcare professionals and the development of innovative diagnostic and treatment technologies [10]. - Early diagnosis is crucial for improving treatment success rates, with AI playing a role in enhancing the identification of high-risk populations and optimizing screening processes [10]. Group 6: Immunotherapy as a Growth Area - Immunotherapy has emerged as a significant growth area in cancer treatment, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 177.4% from 2017 to 2023, potentially reaching a global market size of $84.9 billion by 2030 [11]. - Despite its early development stage, immunotherapy shows great promise, but challenges remain in biomarker selection, toxicity management, and cost control [11].