美国三大因素主导铜价2026持续冲高？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in copper prices, attributing it to a combination of supply shortages and three key factors originating from the United States, with predictions that copper prices may continue to reach historical highs by 2026 [2][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Copper Prices - The first factor is the optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy due to interest rate cuts, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) predicting further rate reductions in 2026, which supports copper prices as it reflects global economic trends [4][5]. - The second factor is the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), which is expected to increase demand for copper, particularly for data centers. Predictions suggest that copper usage for data centers could grow sixfold by 2050, reaching approximately 3 million tons annually [5][7]. - The third factor is renewed concerns over tariffs imposed by former President Trump, which previously caused copper prices to spike. Discussions about increasing tariffs on copper ingots in the future have led to market speculation and price volatility [7][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures have reached their highest levels in over a year, with prices hitting $11,771 per ton, reflecting a significant recovery from the lows experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic [4][8]. - The net long positions in copper futures have reached a nine-month high, indicating strong bullish sentiment among investors, driven by speculation around AI and economic recovery [7][9]. - Despite the strong performance of copper prices, the article notes that the Chinese economy, which accounts for 60% of global copper consumption, remains sluggish due to the real estate downturn, shifting the focus of price movements towards the U.S. market [9].