突发！30年期国债期货大跌！

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under pressure, with a significant decline in long-term treasury futures and rising yields, indicating a shift in market expectations and trading dynamics [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 12, the 30-year treasury futures fell by 0.71%, and continued to decline on December 15, reaching a low of 111.43 yuan, marking a new low in the current adjustment phase [3]. - The yield on the 30-year treasury bond has risen to 2.277%, while the 10-year bond yield increased by 1.5 basis points to 1.8575% [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The widening of the yield spread in the bond market is attributed to a change in institutional expectations rather than central bank tightening or liquidity issues, leading to a reduction in long-term bond allocations [1][7]. - The bond market has experienced significant volatility this year, influenced by various factors including the "stock-bond seesaw" effect and cautious institutional behavior as year-end approaches [7][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Most institutions maintain a conservative short-term outlook for the bond market but remain optimistic about the long-term trend, suggesting a focus on medium to long-term strategies [8]. - Analysts recommend that investors consider the current yield levels as potentially satisfying their return objectives for the coming year, while also advising caution in adjusting positions amid market fluctuations [8][9].