可转债打新火了！年末迎发行小高峰，新券上市表现强劲

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market is experiencing a surge in issuance as the year-end approaches, with heightened enthusiasm from investors for new bond subscriptions [1]. Group 1: Issuance Trends - In December, several new convertible bonds, including those from Puling, Shenyu, Aohong, Tianzhun, and Dingjie, have been launched, covering various advanced sectors such as intelligent manufacturing and electronic technology. The issuance quantity and scale have increased compared to November [2]. - The total issuance scale of the five new bonds in December reached 3.023 billion yuan, up from 2.863 billion yuan from four bonds in November. Year-to-date, 47 convertible bonds have been issued, totaling 62.312 billion yuan, which is an increase compared to 41 bonds and 36.757 billion yuan in 2024 [4]. - The approval process for convertible bond issuance by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges has accelerated, with nine issuance proposals approved since November [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the increase in new bond issuance, the convertible bond market remains in a state of supply-demand imbalance. The total market size of outstanding convertible bonds is currently 561.856 billion yuan, down 171.775 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [8]. - A significant number of convertible bonds, totaling 158, have exited the market this year, compared to 88 in 2024. Notable exits include large-scale bonds such as Pudong Development Bank and Nanyin bonds [8]. - The strong market conditions have led to price increases in convertible bonds, which have mitigated the impact of the declining balance. The market is expected to continue facing a shrinking supply due to the upcoming maturity of many bonds in 2026 [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The convertible bond market is projected to maintain a high valuation in 2026, supported by optimistic expectations for the equity market and ongoing policy incentives. The demand for convertible bonds is expected to remain strong, particularly from "fixed income plus" products [14][15]. - The estimated exit scale of convertible bonds in 2026 could reach approximately 160 billion yuan under neutral assumptions, with an upper limit of 210 billion yuan [11].