破题罕见负增长，2026年投资如何“止跌回稳”

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the decline in fixed asset investment (FAI) growth reflects economic structural adjustments, and does not expect a rebound through aggressive policy measures. The central economic work conference's policy tone is to "support without lifting," aiming for a stabilization of investment growth without setting a specific growth bottom line [1][3]. Group 1: Current Investment Trends - From January to November, national fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, while excluding real estate development, FAI grew by 0.8% [2]. - The fixed asset investment growth rate has been declining significantly over the past decade, with projections indicating a potential negative growth for the first time in twenty years by 2025 [2]. - Real estate development investment has been a major drag on FAI growth, with a sharp decline to -10% in 2022 and further expected declines of around -10% to -15.9% in subsequent years [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Investment Decline - The decline in FAI growth is attributed to a combination of factors, including the persistent negative growth in real estate investment and the impact of debt resolution policies that have constrained infrastructure investment funding [7]. - Manufacturing investment has also seen a significant drop, with year-to-date growth rates declining compared to the previous year, reflecting cautious investment activities due to insufficient order demand [8]. Group 3: Future Investment Outlook - Experts predict a potential rebound in investment growth in 2026, supported by policy measures and a projected FAI growth of 2.8% in the first quarter [10]. - The anticipated recovery is based on several factors, including the support from new policy financial tools, a reduction in project funding pressure, and historical trends indicating a high probability of investment growth at the beginning of the year [10]. - The central economic work conference highlights the need for significant public investment to stimulate demand and support consumption, emphasizing the importance of both social and infrastructure investments [11].