超级逆转？黑马有望逆袭美联储主席

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected shift in the nomination race for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Walsh emerging as the frontrunner, challenging the previously favored candidate, Kevin Hassett. This change reflects the increasing difficulty President Trump faces in exerting influence over the Federal Reserve as he prepares for the upcoming midterm elections [3][5]. Group 1: Nomination Dynamics - Kevin Walsh's nomination probability has risen to 47%, up from 39% on Sunday and just 11% on December 3, while Hassett's probability has dropped to 41% from 51% [4]. - The decline in Hassett's candidacy is attributed to opposition from Trump's allies, who are concerned about Hassett's close ties to Trump [4][5]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, has publicly supported Walsh, indicating that Hassett may align too closely with Trump's demands for aggressive rate cuts [5]. Group 2: Trump's Challenges - President Trump is under pressure to reshape the Federal Reserve due to the challenging landscape for the Republican Party in the upcoming midterm elections [7]. - Trump has expressed uncertainty about the timing of his economic policies' effectiveness, which he believes are crucial for maintaining control of the House of Representatives [7]. - Despite his claims of job creation and stock market boosts from his policies, Trump has wavered on addressing inflation, sometimes dismissing it as a hoax while blaming former President Biden [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The Federal Reserve recently confirmed the reappointment of all regional bank presidents for five-year terms, a routine process that has gained attention due to Trump's pressure for rate cuts [9]. - There is significant internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with a cautious outlook expected at least through the first quarter of the following year [9].