上调！出口增长强劲，外资最新观点来了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic outlook for China's GDP growth, driven by strong export performance and anticipated policy easing measures from the government and central bank [1][3][5]. Economic Data Summary - In November, China's industrial value-added increased by 6% year-on-year, service production index rose by 5.6%, retail sales grew by 4%, and total goods import and export increased by 3.6%, with exports specifically growing by 6.2% [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that China's GDP growth target of 5% for the year is nearly assured, attributing this to the robust export growth [3]. Export Growth and Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for China's export growth to 5%-6% annually over the next few years, citing an expanding global market share [3]. - Deutsche Bank also anticipates a 6% growth in exports by 2026, contributing 0.5 percentage points to overall GDP growth, supported by improved market shares in non-U.S. markets [4]. Real Estate Market Impact - The negative impact of the real estate market on GDP growth is expected to diminish, with projected annual drag reducing from 2 percentage points to approximately 1.5 percentage points in the coming years [3]. Policy Easing Expectations - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined strategies to boost domestic demand through increased household income and service consumption, alongside structural reforms [6]. - Deutsche Bank expects a continuation of active fiscal policies and a stable monetary policy environment, with a focus on maintaining price stability [6][7]. Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a divergence in expectations regarding interest rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs and UBS predicting a 20 basis point cut, while Deutsche Bank sees limited potential for further rate reductions [7]. - The consensus among various banks is that the fiscal deficit rate will remain around 4% of GDP, with some variations in predictions regarding monetary policy actions [7]. Currency Outlook - The article highlights a strong current account surplus of $600 billion, which is 2.8% of GDP, potentially accelerating the internationalization of the Renminbi [9]. - Predictions indicate that the Renminbi may appreciate against the U.S. dollar, with expectations of reaching 6.7 by the end of 2026 and further to 6.5 by the end of 2027 [10].