美联储候选主席沃什与哈塞特，谁对我们更有利？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential successors to the Federal Reserve Chair position, focusing on Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett, highlighting their differing monetary policy philosophies and the implications for the U.S. economy in 2025 amid inflation pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, and technological changes [4][5][15]. Candidate Backgrounds - Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, is known for his hawkish stance and experience in managing financial crises, advocating for market discipline and fiscal sustainability [10]. - Kevin Hassett, a former White House economic advisor, is recognized for his dovish perspective and pro-growth policies, emphasizing tax incentives and regulatory certainty [10]. Monetary Policy Perspectives - Warsh believes inflation is a result of policy choices rather than just economic growth, advocating for a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet and a return to market discipline [12]. - Hassett supports a more aggressive monetary policy, suggesting rapid interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, while criticizing the Fed for potential partisan biases [13]. Market Implications - If Warsh is appointed, the Fed may adopt a more cautious monetary policy, potentially leading to slower economic growth and increased market volatility, but promoting healthier long-term valuations [14]. - Conversely, Hassett's leadership could result in quicker interest rate cuts, benefiting sectors sensitive to borrowing, such as technology and real estate, but risking higher deficits and inflation expectations [14]. Public Sentiment and Predictions - As of December 13, 2025, public sentiment shows Hassett initially leading, but Warsh's chances increased significantly following Trump's endorsement, with Warsh's probability rising from 15% to 37-40% [16]. - Prediction markets indicate Hassett's probability at around 49%, though the gap is narrowing [16]. Conclusion - The appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chair will significantly impact the U.S. economic trajectory, with Warsh potentially ushering in a period of disciplined stability, while Hassett may lead to more aggressive growth-oriented policies [22].