13亿元涌入，碳酸锂期货再次突破10万元！影响多大？

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing significant growth, with a historical high in open interest and a substantial influx of capital, indicating a strong demand outlook driven by the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [1][4][6]. Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - The open interest for lithium carbonate futures reached a record high, surpassing 660,000 contracts, with over 1.3 billion yuan entering the market [1][6]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) rose to a range of 94,000 to 97,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a daily increase of 5.26% [3]. - Global lithium carbonate supply is projected at 1.35 million tons in 2024, with demand at 1.22 million tons, indicating a temporary surplus but strong support from the booming electric vehicle and energy storage industries [3]. Group 2: Export Growth in Battery Sector - In November, China's exports of power and other batteries reached 32.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year increase of 46.5% [4]. - Cumulative exports from January to November totaled 260.3 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.2% [4]. - The export volume of power batteries in November was 21.2 GWh, accounting for 66% of total exports, with a year-on-year increase of 70.2% [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Industry Outlook - The lithium carbonate price is expected to range between 60,000 and 100,000 yuan per ton in 2025, with the latter half of 2024 showing stronger price performance compared to 2024 [6]. - The social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for 13 consecutive weeks, totaling a reduction of 22,000 tons, marking a new low since the futures were launched [6]. - Key raw materials in the new energy battery supply chain, such as sulfur and sulfuric acid, are also experiencing price increases due to supply tightness from maintenance activities in various regions [7].