债市在恐慌什么？超长债大幅深跌后反弹

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant volatility, with long-term bonds facing sharp declines despite positive macroeconomic signals, leading to a sense of panic among traders [3][5]. Market Performance - As of the latest close, all government bond futures fell, with the 30-year main contract down 0.99% to 111.53 yuan, marking a new low since November 18, 2024. The 10-year and 5-year contracts also saw declines [3]. - In the interbank market, yields on most interest rate bonds rose, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 3.6 basis points to over 2.28%, and the 10-year bond yield approaching 1.86%, both reaching new highs since the end of September [3][6]. Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a mixed outlook, with November's industrial output growth at 4.8%, a slight decline from October, and retail sales growth slowing to 1.3%, marking six consecutive months of deceleration [6]. - Housing prices in first-tier cities showed a mixed trend, with new home prices declining in most cities except Shanghai, which saw a 5.1% increase year-on-year [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Expectations - Analysts suggest that the current bond market situation cannot be fully explained by fundamentals, as panic selling may overshadow positive macroeconomic expectations. There is an increased market anticipation for expansionary policies in the coming year [5][6]. - The sentiment in the bond market remains weak, with institutions showing a tendency to sell off long-term bonds, particularly as year-end approaches and redemption pressures mount [11][12]. Institutional Behavior - The bond market has seen a negative feedback loop, with institutions opting to secure profits amid declining prices, particularly affecting long-term bonds [10]. - Analysts note that the recent sell-off in long-term bonds is influenced by both trading and allocation pressures, with banks facing constraints related to duration risk and a shift in investment focus towards equities [11][12].