创纪录！南向资金，爆买！

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2023, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 20% year-to-date, but has entered a correction phase since mid-October, with increased volatility and a significant adjustment in December [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is significantly influenced by overseas liquidity and closely tied to the mainland economy, with liquidity having a more immediate impact on market performance than fundamentals [1] - Multiple factors, including valuation advantages, improved asset quality, and market ecosystem restructuring, are expected to drive valuation recovery in the Hong Kong market [1] - Several brokerage firms predict that the Hong Kong market will experience a second round of valuation recovery and performance rebound by 2026, as fundamentals are expected to bottom out [1] Group 2: Southbound Capital Inflows - Southbound capital has been a key driver of the Hong Kong market's strong performance in 2025, with net inflows reaching a record 1.39 trillion HKD by December 15, 2025, significantly surpassing the total for 2024 [3] - The cumulative net inflow through the Stock Connect has reached 5.09 trillion HKD, nearing the 5.10 trillion HKD mark, providing substantial liquidity to the market and enhancing the pricing power of mainland investors [3] - The total trading volume in the Hong Kong market exceeded 57.5 trillion HKD in the first 11 months of 2025, marking a historical high and a 94.5% increase year-on-year [4] Group 3: Future Projections for Southbound Capital - Future inflows of southbound capital are expected to continue, with estimates suggesting an additional 600 billion HKD from public funds and insurance capital in 2026 [4] - If the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in new funds increases from 30.8% to 35%, there could be an additional inflow of 1 to 1.5 billion HKD [4] - Individual investors are projected to contribute significantly to the inflow, with potential purchases of 2.5 billion to 5 billion HKD in the coming year [5] Group 4: Share Buyback Trends - The enthusiasm for share buybacks in the Hong Kong market has increased, with total buyback amounts reaching 169.35 billion HKD in 2025, despite a decline from 2024 [8] - Monthly buyback amounts have surged since October, with 93.72 billion HKD in October, 117.42 billion HKD in November, and 115.24 billion HKD in the first half of December [8][10] - Major companies like Xiaomi and Tencent have contributed to the rising buyback trend, enhancing earnings per share and market confidence [9][10] Group 5: Foreign Capital Inflows - In 2025, foreign capital has stopped flowing out of the Hong Kong market, with inflows of 13.44 billion USD reported [12] - The demand for foreign capital in Chinese assets remains optimistic, driven by expectations of a stable or appreciating RMB and positive domestic fundamentals [12] - The inflow of foreign capital is expected to be slightly lower in 2026 compared to 2025, but remains strong compared to southbound capital inflows [12] Group 6: Outlook for 2026 - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to benefit from internal catalysts and external monetary easing policies, particularly from the US and Japan [14] - The market is expected to see a rebound in corporate earnings and continued inflows from southbound and foreign capital, driven by a "money-making effect" [15] - Key investment directions for 2026 include technology sectors, healthcare, resources benefiting from inflation, essential consumer goods, and industries benefiting from RMB appreciation [14][15]