油价急速跳水失守60美元，黄金冲破4330美元，逼近历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent sharp decline in international oil prices, attributing it to a combination of disappointing U.S. employment data and ongoing concerns about global economic recovery, leading to a bearish outlook on oil demand [1][3][5]. Group 1: Oil Price Movement - On December 16, WTI crude oil futures fell by 2.06% to $55.65 per barrel, while ICE Brent crude dropped nearly 2% to $59.62 per barrel, marking the first time it fell below $60 since May [1]. - As of December 15, ICE Brent crude has seen a year-to-date decline of 19.13%, and WTI crude has dropped 20.97%, indicating a significant downward trend in oil prices [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for November showed an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [3]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth rates of 3.2% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, which are lower than the growth expected for 2024 [6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The article highlights a persistent oversupply in the oil market, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) reporting that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day [6]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates that U.S. crude oil production will reach a record high this year, further exacerbating supply concerns [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on the oil market, there are potential long-term changes due to the rising demand for electricity driven by AI technology, which may impact oil demand dynamics [7]. - Analysts suggest that the rapid growth of AI data centers could lead to a significant electricity shortfall in the U.S. by 2028, potentially increasing natural gas demand and affecting oil prices in the long run [7].